Colorado Flu Hospitalizations Outpace COVID-19 Early Season

58 flu hospitalizations. That is the number Colorado reported through last week, and it already exceeds the 39 for COVID-19 and the four for RSV. On paper, that makes influenza the most active of the big three respiratory viruses right now. In practice, it means the season started early, and health officials are already sweating the numbers because last year was a disaster.

The obvious take is that this early start signals another nightmare season like 2025. But the data suggests something else: this might not be as bad as we fear, provided people actually get their shots.

Let’s look at the horror from last year first. Colorado recorded more than 5,900 flu-related hospitalizations in the previous season, a record since tracking began in 2004. More than 1,100 of those were children. Eight children died. A total of 207 people died from the flu in Colorado during the 2025 calendar year, the highest number this century. Dr. Rachel Herlihy, deputy chief medical officer at the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, called those record hospitalizations a "sobering reminder" of how serious the virus can be, especially for young kids.

So why is this early start different? It comes down to the specific strain of virus circulating. According to Dr. Suchitra Rao, an infectious disease specialist at Children’s Hospital Colorado, last year was dominated by the H3N2 version of influenza A. That is a notorious shape-shifter that makes it difficult for vaccines to match the virus effectively. This year, early signs point to the H1N1 flu virus as the most common strain. Rao noted that H1N1 should bode well for vaccine effectiveness.

There is another layer of good news coming from the other side of the globe. Countries in the Southern Hemisphere, which experience their flu season before we do, reported a less-severe season this year than the prior two years. Rao said those positive signals might mean this year’s "flu fright" will come with less bite than the record-breaking season behind us.

However, Rao also issued a caveat that should keep you awake at night: "I stopped making predictions about the flu a long time ago." Flu seasons are highly variable. Sometimes they peak by early December. Sometimes not until spring. Sometimes both. It is still too soon to know which direction this specific season will go, she said.

That uncertainty is exactly why public health officials are pushing for vaccination now. Rao pointed out that children hospitalized with the flu can suffer from difficulty breathing or rare, terrifying complications. The vaccine is the only tool that reliably reduces the severity of those outcomes, regardless of which strain ends up dominating.

For context, the flu season typically runs from October through May. If you are in a high-risk group — older adults, young children, or anyone with underlying health conditions — the window to get protected is open right now. You do not need to wait for a peak in cases to make the decision.

The practical bottom line is simple: 58 hospitalizations is a small number in the grand scheme of state health, but it is an early warning light on the dashboard. Last year’s 5,900 hospitalizations and 207 deaths were not a fluke; they were the result of a mismatched vaccine and a stubborn virus. This year, the strain is different, and the Southern Hemisphere data looks better. But a vaccine that matches the virus only works if you actually get it. If you haven’t had your flu shot, do not wait for the weather to turn cold. Go now.