El Niño Forecast Gives Aspen Hope Amid Exceptional Drought

Aspen —Aspen is currently classified as being in "Exceptional Drought," the highest possible category on the U.S. Drought Monitor. That is the headline. But the more interesting story, and the one that should keep local officials honest, is that the drought might actually get better soon. Not because the city has fixed anything, but because El Niño is coming, and it usually brings rain.

The question is whether we should trust that forecast.

This assessment comes from an information update submitted to the Aspen City Council by the city’s Drought Response Committee ahead of a recent meeting. The committee, which includes city staff, has been monitoring water levels in Castle Creek and Maroon Creek, the two primary sources for Aspen’s municipal water supply.

According to the update, stream flows through the end of summer were dismal, sitting at roughly 30% of normal. But late September brought a reprieve. Increased precipitation helped buffer the watersheds, and by the time the committee filed its report, stream flows had recovered to about average levels. That is a significant shift from the near-drought conditions that plagued the valley earlier in the year.

The committee points to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, which predicts that drought conditions could improve slightly in western Colorado over the next three months. The driver is El Niño, a weather pattern that typically increases precipitation in the Intermountain West. However, the committee is careful to note that predicting the exact impact of El Niño is difficult. It has frequently been predicted that Colorado will have a wetter winter, but certainty is rare in climate forecasting.

Despite the potential for improvement, Aspen remains in Stage Three of its Water Shortage Declaration, a status it has held since May 12. This stage imposes strict restrictions on outdoor watering and other non-essential uses. The committee reports that compliance with these restrictions is estimated at around 65%, a figure that staff describe as an "extremely good response."

"Staff sincerely appreciate the community’s response to the Stage Three water shortage restrictions and the conservation efforts made to date," the update states. "These results demonstrate that collective action can make a meaningful difference in reducing water demand and protecting our water resources."

The committee plans to continue reviewing drought indicators and data regularly. Staff will revisit recommendations for the continuation of the current Stage Three Water Shortage Declaration and report those recommendations to the council at a future date. For now, the community is asked to keep conserving, even as the clouds begin to gather.

To hear them tell it, the situation is improving, but the work isn't done. The math holds up: less water usage plus more rain equals a healthier watershed. That depends on who you ask, but the data suggests we are on the right track.

The Drought Response Committee’s next report will likely determine whether Aspen steps down to Stage Two or maintains its current restrictions. Given the recent increase in stream flows and the forecast for increased precipitation, a step-down seems plausible. However, until the council makes a formal decision, residents should continue to follow Stage Three guidelines.

In the meantime, locals should keep an eye on the weather. If El Niño delivers on its promise, Aspen could see a much-needed break from the dry conditions that have defined the past year. If not, the city may face another challenging winter. Either way, the message from the committee is clear: stay informed, stay conservative, and stay hopeful.