Colorado 8th District Race Tied As Both Candidates Bleed Support

The 8th Congressional District race is a dead heat, but the numbers suggest both candidates are bleeding support. According to a new poll, Republican U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans and his Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Manny Rutinel, are tied within the margin of error. This is a warning sign for both sides.

The survey was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, a Republican firm. It ran on behalf of Enhancing American Competitiveness, a conservative nonprofit backing Evans. The poll surveyed 400 likely voters in the district via text and phone calls on Sept. 16 and 17. The results show 48% of respondents would vote for Evans, while 46% would choose Rutinel. Six percent remain undecided. With a 4.9 percentage point margin of error, no clear leader emerges.

To hear them tell it, Republicans see this as proof Evans can survive national backlash against President Donald Trump. But the data reveals cracks in his armor. Forty-eight percent of voters hold an unfavorable view of Evans, compared to 44% who view him favorably. That gap matters. Voters aren’t just rejecting Democrats; they’re rejecting the incumbent.

The national mood is sour. Fifty-one percent of polled voters disapprove of Trump. Thirty-four percent approve of both him and his policies. Thirteen percent dislike Trump personally but like many of his policies. Only 34% believe the country is headed in the right direction. Sixty-one percent say the U.S. is on the wrong track. That discontent is real, but it hasn’t translated into a mandate for change.

Rutinel faces his own headwinds. Thirty-seven percent of voters hold an unfavorable view of him, while 32% view him favorably. Nearly 18% had never heard of him. Name recognition is a currency in politics, and Rutinel is short. The poll also found 47% of voters would back a generic Republican candidate in the district, matching the 47% who would back a generic Democrat. Voters are split down the middle, and their anger at Trump isn’t automatically fueling a vote for Rutinel.

The 8th District stretches from Denver’s northern suburbs along U.S. 85 into Greeley. It was drawn in 2021 to be hypercompetitive, and it has delivered. Evans unseated Democrat Yadira Caraveo by less than a percentage point in 2024. Caraveo had won the first election in the newly created district by a similar margin in 2022. Millions of dollars have already flowed into this race from super PACs and political nonprofits, which isn’t unexpected given the stakes. The outcome could determine which party controls Congress.

The question is whether voters will punish the incumbent for the national mood or stick with the familiar face. The math holds up for a tight race, but the sentiment data suggests neither candidate has a secure base. That depends on who you ask, but the poll points to a district that is genuinely torn.