Colorado Democrats Bet on Jessica Killin to Flip Red 5th District

On a Saturday night in Colorado Springs, the parking lot outside a local union hall is overflowing. For a city long defined by its Republican identity, the scene is striking: hundreds of supporters packed in for a rally supporting Democratic congressional candidate Jessica Killin.

Killin’s bid to represent the 5th Congressional District was once considered a long shot. Now, it looks more like a makeable play.

“No one — mark my words — no one other than me, and maybe Emily and my parents, believed in this race,” Killin told the crowd last weekend, referring to her campaign manager, Emily Dalgleish. “Literally, no one.”

The shift isn’t just about one candidate. It’s about a changing electorate. In 2020, unaffiliated voters became the largest share of El Paso County’s electorate, surpassing registered Republicans. Since then, Democrats have captured a growing slice of the vote in recent elections.

For decades, the 5th District hasn’t sent a Democrat to Washington. But that streak is under pressure. Polling now shows Killin essentially tied with incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Crank.

That closeness has drawn national attention. Democrats view a win in the 8th District north of Denver as essential to taking control of the U.S. House. But a victory in the 5th District would carry extra weight. It would signal how voters feel about President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans. It would also stand as one of the most notable Democratic wins in the country on election night.

The stakes are high because the margin of safety has eroded. Crank defeated his Democratic opponent by 14 percentage points in 2024. Trump carried El Paso County by about 10 points in the same election. Those buffers are shrinking.

This shift has pulled major players into the race. Killin’s recent rally drew a who’s who of Colorado Democrats, including two sitting members of Congress, Attorney General Phil Weiser, current and former state lawmakers, and a former lieutenant governor.

U.S. Rep. Joe Neguse, a Democrat from Lafayette, framed the importance of the race in stark terms.

“So goes the 5th Congressional District, so goes the U.S. House of Representatives,” Neguse told the crowd. “And the fate of that chamber, in his view, hangs on this outcome.”

Neguse has used similar language previously, often in reference to the 8th District. The repetition underscores how central both races have become to the party’s strategy.

The question is whether this surge of attention and resources will translate into votes on Election Day. To hear the candidates tell it, the momentum is real. Whether the math holds up for the Democrats remains the central tension of the race. That depends on who you ask, but the presence of top-tier party leaders in a traditionally red union hall suggests they believe the answer is yes.