Weak Western Slope Rain Fails to Douse Ongoing Wildfires

Colorado’s Western Slope is getting rain this week, but it probably won’t stop the wildfires.

OpenSnow Meteorologist Alan Smith forecasts a moderate-to-high chance of showers and thunderstorms across the high country starting Tuesday, with patchy smoke lingering from active fires in Southeast Utah and Southern Colorado. The National Weather Service projects up to a 40% chance of precipitation Wednesday, with wind gusts reaching 25 miles per hour.

Temperatures will stay in the 70s and 80s, with Glenwood Springs and Steamboat Springs hitting the 90s by weekend.

The math holds up, but the impact is minimal. Stronger storms might produce locally heavy rain in the mountains, but drier air at lower elevations creates a "dry thunderstorm" setup. That means lightning strikes on dry vegetation with no rain to put them out, especially if Thursday brings limited moisture.

"There is still some concern about what thunderstorm outflow winds could do to ongoing wildfires if these fires themselves do not receive meaningful rain," Smith wrote.

Gillian Felton, a Grand Junction meteorologist with the National Weather Service, says it’s hard to predict whether this week's showers will move the needle on extreme fire risk. The precipitation amounts are too small to matter much for existing blazes.

"Even though we are getting this push of moisture, it’s really rather weak," Felton said. "While some localized areas might see more precipitation than others, overall, this moisture moves through quickly and we get right back to very dry, very hot conditions."

Much of the Western Slope remains in the highest level of drought as of July 2, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

This isn’t monsoon season yet. The current moisture is a temporary uptick, not the seasonal shift folks around here might be hoping for.

The local impact

For neighbors in Glenwood Springs, Steamboat Springs, and the high country towns, the forecast offers relief from heat but not from fire danger. The smoke will linger through early afternoon Tuesday, reducing visibility and air quality before the storms roll in.

The question is whether locals will see enough rain to cool down their yards, or if they’ll just watch the smoke drift over their roofs. The answer lies in the dry air aloft. If the storms don't break through that layer, they’re just lightning in a dry oven.

Felton notes that while some areas might get more rain than others, the moisture doesn't stick around. It moves through quickly. The region returns to hot, dry conditions almost immediately after the storms pass.

That depends on who you ask about the timing of monsoon season, but for now, the fire risk remains high. The weak moisture push won't change that.

"We get right back to very dry, very hot conditions," Felton said.