Aspen Reports Less Than Half Snow Water Equivalent in March Flight

Less than half the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) of last year. That is the headline number from Aspen’s first Airborne Snow Observation (ASO) flight, and it is a stark warning for anyone relying on the Roaring Fork River to keep the lights on and the taps running.

The city confirmed the data on March 22, but the timing tells the real story. This flight happened weeks earlier than usual. Why? Because the snow is already gone or melting faster than anyone expected. The flight captured significantly less snow in the Castle, Maroon, and surrounding watersheds than the same period last year. And let’s be clear: last year was already considered a below-average year. We are now looking at a deficit that compounds on a deficit.

Steve Hunter, the city’s Utilities Resource Manager, put it plainly. High temperatures and a lack of precipitation have severely impacted these western watersheds. The result is a thinner, less dense snowpack. This isn’t just a minor fluctuation; it’s a structural shift in how we manage water during drought conditions.

For context, the city has been funding and participating in ASO flights since the 2023/24 winter. They are part of the Colorado Airborne Snow Measurement Program, which is pushing for a statewide system to improve streamflow forecasting. But you don’t need a statewide program to see that the sky is falling on the snowpack. The first flight was flown on March 22, almost a month earlier than the previous year’s flight. The second flight, usually scheduled for late May, will likely be pulled forward too. The goal is to catch the remaining snowpack at various elevations before it melts into the river and disappears.

The technology behind this isn’t magic. It’s LiDAR and imaging spectrometers paired with a snow dynamics model. They measure depth and albedo — how reflective the snow is — to calculate SWE with high spatial resolution. This data helps water managers forecast runoff, river inflows, and soil moisture. It helps the treatment staff manage water quality during the rush of melt. But it doesn’t create water. It just measures what’s left.

PJ Murray, the project manager, notes that the Clean River Program, which handles stormwater and water quality in the Roaring Fork River, contributes to the Independence Pass/Upper Roaring Fork watershed. The City Water/Utilities Department helps fund this. That’s the logistical reality. We are paying for precision in a system that is running on empty.

The immediate impact? Anxiety. When the SWE is this low, the runoff timing changes. You might get a quick flush in April and then nothing in July. Or you get a slow drip that never quite fills the reservoirs. Either way, the margin for error shrinks. The city can anticipate, plan, and manage, but they can’t force rain or snow to fall.

This is what happens when you treat a chronic condition with acute care. We are flying planes to measure snow that isn’t there. The data is accurate. The forecasting is improved. But the bottom line is simple: the water supply is tighter, the costs are higher, and the risk of shortage is real. For locals, this means preparing for a summer where every drop counts, and the "below-average" label of last year is now just the baseline for a potential deficit.