Lula Wins Fourth Term as Brazil Defies Trump Tariffs

Aspen —On a street in Rio de Janeiro, the air is thick with humidity and the sharp sting of car horns. A woman in a red shirt, the color worn by Lula’s base, leans over four men sipping beers in yellow and green. She shouts, “You lost! Cry harder!” A roar rises from the crowd as the result is confirmed.

That moment of chaotic celebration marks the end of a tense electoral night in Brazil, where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured his non-consecutive fourth term. With 100% of the vote counted, Brazil’s electoral court announced Lula held a lead of nearly 4.4 million votes over opponent Flávio Bolsonaro, capturing 51.8% of the total. The Vail Daily reported that this victory provides relief to critics of widening U.S. influence in Latin America, bucking a regional trend where right-of-center candidates allied with President Donald Trump have been winning.

To hear them tell it, the win is a shield against external pressure. Lula’s victory leaves Mexico and Brazil, Latin America’s two most populous nations, with left-of-center leaders. It also positions the region’s largest economy, which generates a GDP of $2.6 trillion per year, to remain independent despite the pressure of increased tariffs imposed by Trump.

The path to that confirmation was not smooth. The evening was defined by a last-minute decision from Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, who ruled three minutes before the scheduled end of voting to keep polls open for two more hours. The move was prompted by requests from both campaigns: Lula cited transportation issues with buses in São Paulo and Salvador, while Bolsonaro pointed to heavy rains in the south. The Vail Daily noted that this decision may trigger legal action by Bolsonaro, who had yet to respond to the apparent victory as of the report.

In Brasília, volunteers at a school debated whether they needed to stay after the announcement to extend voting. Most left 15 to 20 minutes after polls closed, leaving behind a trail of confusion that the electoral court’s final announcement finally settled.

For those on the losing side, the reaction was sharper than the rain in the south. Rodrigo Valentim, a 51-year-old businessman and Bolsonaro supporter, struggled to reconcile the result with his economic outlook. He pointed to financial markets’ positive reaction during the first round, when Bolsonaro bested Lula.

“I don’t understand how people can vote for Lula,” Valentim said. “The country is collapsing.”

His skepticism highlights the friction between domestic political sentiment and market signals. The question is whether a Lula government, now set to begin its next term on Jan. 5, 2027, can navigate a global landscape that is increasingly hostile to his brand of left-of-center leadership.

In São Paulo, hundreds of supporters gathered on the city’s main artery to celebrate. In Rio, the noise was a physical thing, echoing off buildings as Lula’s campaign confirmed the win. A video from the campaign showed the veteran leader, soon to be 81, wearing star-shaped red glasses and kissing his wife, first lady Rosângela da Silva.

The next term begins in January 2027, but the political reality has already shifted. Lula’s win confirms that Brazil’s largest economy will continue to operate with a degree of independence from Washington, even as tariffs tighten. For neighbors in the valley watching global trade dynamics, the signal is clear: Latin America’s two biggest economies are moving in a direction that does not align with the current U.S. administration.

As Lula prepares for another term, his outlook is defined by defiance rather than caution. He remains a vocal critic of President Trump, and his victory suggests that domestic support is strong enough to withstand that pressure.

“The country is collapsing,” Valentim said, a sentiment that will likely fuel the opposition’s arguments in the months ahead. But for now, the roar in Rio has won out over the doubt.