Record Warm March Drives Historic Low Snowpack in Upper Colorado River Basin

“March was not … helpful,” consulting climate researcher Jeff Lukas observed. That’s the polite way of saying the month wrecked the snowpack.

The Upper Colorado River Basin just endured the warmest March on record. It was also one of the driest. The result? Snowpack peaked at its earliest date and lowest level in history. For context, that means water that should have been sitting in the mountains, slowly melting through the spring and summer, is gone. Or close to it.

Now, the weather forecasters are pointing to the horizon. The risk of an El Niño event is rising. The Washington Post reported Monday that this specific El Niño could push global temperatures to record levels, particularly in 2027. Paul Rondy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany, wrote that there is “real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years.”

What does that mean for us? Hotter summers. Milder winters. And a continued drain on a river system that is already gasping for air.

Let’s look at the numbers, because they are stark.

On April 1, the snowpack in the Eagle River drainage was just 21% of the 30-year average. The Roaring Fork River sat at 26%. The Yampa? 20%. The San Juan? A mere 17%. In all these cases, the snowpack had fallen by half or more compared to March 1. We are looking at a basin-wide deficit that is historic.

Lake Powell, already shrunken to 24% or 25% of capacity, is losing ground fast. As of Tuesday, the reservoir level was down almost 31 feet from a year ago. The Colorado River Basin Forecasting Center predicts flows into Powell will be only 22% of average. Rain and snow could still help, but for the next 10 days, don’t hold your breath.

We have two benchmarks for bad years: 1977 and 2002. In 2002, flows into Powell were shockingly low, about 25% of average. But here’s the difference. In 2002, Powell started the century at 94% full. We don’t have that buffer anymore. Margins have narrowed to nothing.

Becky Bolinger, a climate researcher in Colorado, pointed out that the current forecast projects April-through-July flows will be slightly greater than 2002. “I think it is entirely plausible that the actual volume for 2026 comes in as a new record low,” she wrote.

If we get a strong El Niño, the heat will accelerate the melt. It will also reduce the precipitation that falls as snow. We get less water in the ground, and we lose it faster.

This isn’t just about whether the creek behind your house runs dry. It affects the orchards in Grand Junction. It impacts the irrigation districts that rely on consistent flows from the Colorado River. It drives the power generation at Glen Canyon Dam.

The forecast for 2027 is a hotter planet. The current reality is a snowpack that is barely a memory. The combination is a recipe for water stress that locals have never seen, and probably won’t forget.

For the folks in the valley, the bottom line is simple: expect higher temperatures, lower flows, and a lot less margin for error. If you’re betting on a wet spring to save the year, you might want to hedge your bets.